Helena Guergis focus of phone poll underway in Simcoe-Grey

A "research" company, believed to have been commissioned by the Conservative Party, is currently conducting a telephone survey of federal voter intentions in Simcoe-Grey, with particular emphasis on MP Helena Guergis.

The phone survey opens with a description of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff as an "academic" and asks the person being interviewed whether they would vote for someone with such an education background, or whether they favour change.

Initially the survey taker asks for the male, 18 years or older, in the house to answer questions, but will talk to women, as happened in this writer's household last night.

It's approximately a three minute interview and the respondent is asked whether they recognize from news reports, Ms. Guergis, Stephen Harper, Rahim Jaffer, and Mr. Ignatieff. As a companion question, they're asked to rate each one as favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat unfavourable, or totally unfavourable.

However, the phone poll, also gets around to asking voter intentions including by party, then listing each of the candidates now nominated in Simcoe-Grey, plus how the respondent would vote if Ms. Guergis were to run as an independent.

The incumbent MP is currently expelled from the Conservative caucus pending the outcome investigations involving "serious allegations" that have not been identified by the Prime Minister, but are the subject of national media attention. Because Ms. Guergis is not considered a "member in good standing" her guaranteed nomination status for the Conservatives in Simcoe-Grey is uncertain.

It's believed that the telephone poll is being conducted on behalf of the Conservative Party to determine how they will deal with the nomination issue. There's a new sense of urgency in Ottawa firing up election speculation because of the Speaker's ruling Tuesday that went against the Harper government's handling of documents related to the Afghan detainee file.

If the government refuses to reach a settlement over the next two week deadline, a motion of confidence would follow that could trigger an election in June at the earliest.

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